Arena run #45

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "ATG_CFD.UK", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0152284263959421, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -33.84107948739843, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.828037166534672, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.17820784721184, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADM_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2830.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.359635811836118, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.501837886527966, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.363744343050849, "volatility_20d_pct": 64.17460177947412, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AJB_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 457.11, "change_1d_pct": 1.670373665480418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.4204773147297445, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.811061785203455, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.24632385988097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AED_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 74.25, "change_1d_pct": -0.4691689008042843, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.601110679157568, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.372371205622307, "volatility_20d_pct": 48.742762060974094, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "name": "ANGLO AMERICAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3427.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.252972076306328, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 31.04430630174555, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.04978970923831, "volatility_20d_pct": 93.22378888363174, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 38.5, "change_1d_pct": -0.051921079958472394, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.334449878087907, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.71948319211272, "volatility_20d_pct": 136.2098161761126, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMCX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 7.64, "change_1d_pct": -1.1642949547218673, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.717164791137283, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.623516110797073, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.94627553125504, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AEO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 23.73, "change_1d_pct": -1.9016122364613475, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 44.95542300044897, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.938548560257672, "volatility_20d_pct": 93.12269812521686, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AA_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 59.22, "change_1d_pct": -1.2835472578763163, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 59.34582645512041, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.364092676927172, "volatility_20d_pct": 113.71168549664476, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATC_CFD.PL", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 8.12, "change_1d_pct": -0.7334963325183463, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.75206371759338, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.604159741678159, "volatility_20d_pct": 68.70009578318837, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL",
      "selection_reason": "Price below MA200 (-14.33%) and MA50 (-9.72%); flat 1D move suggests potential basing for 2-10d snapback (high vol noted).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA200 (-33.84%) and below MA50 (-5.83%) with a down day (-1.02%); strong oversold setup (very high 20d vol).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ATC_CFD.PL",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-18.75%) and slightly below MA50 (-3.60%) with mild down day (-0.73%); moderate volatility vs other oversold names.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AJB_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-7.81%) and MA200 (-6.42%); modest oversold technicals despite positive 1D move (+1.67%).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 62
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADM_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-7.36%) and MA200 (-12.50%) but large 1D surge (+7.36%) may mean partial mean-reversion already occurred.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 58
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Region mismatch for EU scan (US-listed symbols present in input universe)",
    "Trading above key moving averages (price extended above MA50/MA200), weaker long mean-reversion dip setup",
    "Very high short-term volatility (20d vol extremely elevated), increasing mean-reversion timing/stop risk",
    "Large 1D rebound already in progress, reducing immediate mean-reversion edge"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [], "candidates": [{"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "Price below MA200 (-14.33%) and MA50 (-9.72%); flat 1D move suggests potential basing for 2-10d snapback (high vol noted)."}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA200 (-33.84%) and below MA50 (-5.83%) with a down day (-1.02%); strong oversold setup (very high 20d vol)."}, {"symbol": "ATC_CFD.PL", "mean_reversion_score": 70, "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-18.75%) and slightly below MA50 (-3.60%) with mild down day (-0.73%); moderate volatility vs other oversold names."}, {"symbol": "AJB_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 62, "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-7.81%) and MA200 (-6.42%); modest oversold technicals despite positive 1D move (+1.67%)."}, {"symbol": "ADM_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 58, "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-7.36%) and MA200 (-12.50%) but large 1D surge (+7.36%) may mean partial mean-reversion already occurred."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Highest mean-reversion score (82). Price is materially below MA200 (-14.33%) and MA50 (-9.72%), with a flat 1D move suggesting a potential basing phase for a 2–10d snapback.",
        "symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Second-highest mean-reversion score (75). Deeply below MA200 (-33.84%) and still below MA50 (-5.83%) with a recent down day (-1.02%), fitting an oversold mean-reversion setup.",
        "symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio is currently empty, so initiate up to 2 positions (max buys per run) using the fixed position size. Select the two strongest mean-reversion candidates by score to avoid overtrading and maintain discipline. Total new gross exposure is 6,000 (within leverage/position constraints)."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL",
      "selection_reason": "Price below MA200 (-14.33%) and MA50 (-9.72%); flat 1D move suggests potential basing for 2-10d snapback (high vol noted).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA200 (-33.84%) and below MA50 (-5.83%) with a down day (-1.02%); strong oversold setup (very high 20d vol).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ATC_CFD.PL",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-18.75%) and slightly below MA50 (-3.60%) with mild down day (-0.73%); moderate volatility vs other oversold names.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AJB_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-7.81%) and MA200 (-6.42%); modest oversold technicals despite positive 1D move (+1.67%).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 62
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADM_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-7.36%) and MA200 (-12.50%) but large 1D surge (+7.36%) may mean partial mean-reversion already occurred.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 58
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Region mismatch for EU scan (US-listed symbols present in input universe)",
    "Trading above key moving averages (price extended above MA50/MA200), weaker long mean-reversion dip setup",
    "Very high short-term volatility (20d vol extremely elevated), increasing mean-reversion timing/stop risk",
    "Large 1D rebound already in progress, reducing immediate mean-reversion edge"
  ]
}