Arena run #54
meanrev-v1 • z-ai • z-ai/glm-4.7 • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-02-09T15:39:39.370495+00:00
started_at: 2026-02-09T15:50:59.951765+00:00
finished_at: 2026-02-09T15:52:55.872946+00:00
duration_ms: 115918
Inputs
{
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [],
"universe_symbols": [
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"BPT_CFD.UK",
"BBOX_CFD.UK",
"BYIT_CFD.UK",
"ADJ_CFD.DE",
"BT_CFD.UK",
"CAR_CFD.US",
"ASGN_CFD.US",
"BDX_CFD.US",
"BFAM_CFD.US",
"BLND_CFD.UK",
"AJB_CFD.UK",
"ATE_CFD.FR",
"BAVA_CFD.DK",
"BOY_CFD.UK",
"BIG_CFD.FR",
"CHT_CFD.US",
"CCC_CFD.UK",
"BRO_CFD.US",
"CCK_CFD.US",
"AJG_CFD.US",
"AMCX_CFD.US",
"CAR_CFD.PL",
"BBY_CFD.US",
"BVB_CFD.DE",
"CABO_CFD.US",
"ASY_CFD.FR",
"BLDR_CFD.US",
"AA_CFD.US",
"AST_CFD.PL",
"AGFB_CFD.BE",
"CE_CFD.US",
"ARW_CFD.US",
"AMBUb_CFD.DK",
"BAR_CFD.BE",
"CBRE_CFD.US",
"BEN_CFD.FR",
"ALL_CFD.US",
"BMY_CFD.US",
"ABBV_CFD.US",
"BARC_CFD.UK",
"BRNK_CFD.DE",
"BERY_CFD.US",
"BPOST_CFD.BE",
"ADP_CFD.US",
"AZN_CFD.SE",
"AIZ_CFD.US",
"BCP_CFD.PT",
"BMO_CFD.US",
"CAG_CFD.US"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [],
"hold": [],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidates provided in the input list and the current portfolio is empty. No trades can be executed."
}Prompts & responses
#98 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-02-09T15:51:00.019679+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "ATG_CFD.UK", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0152284263959421, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -33.84107948739843, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.828037166534672, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.17820784721184, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 274.2, "change_1d_pct": -5.912225920461179, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.483684525527371, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.545463557334964, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.69917499624198, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBOX_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 166.0, "change_1d_pct": 15.598885793871876, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.063751209988908, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.510960991667927, "volatility_20d_pct": 57.84262866116462, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 304.8, "change_1d_pct": -9.92907801418439, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -27.18690998374248, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.74157791784395, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.40989379380683, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.186, "change_1d_pct": 3.3333333333333437, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.132822716233882, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.098546042003239, "volatility_20d_pct": 289.85428872043053, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 202.7, "change_1d_pct": 9.037116729424422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.5002220805031605, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.900238559965292, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.0133471383762, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 119.97, "change_1d_pct": 2.0239816310910763, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.465983461011612, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.580040925546992, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.0434760491137, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ASGN_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 50.97, "change_1d_pct": 2.2877784467188356, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.411605443065312, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.189663207986838, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.90566495955204, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BDX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 208.67, "change_1d_pct": 1.379779429626371, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.477413629979605, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.4471762673110815, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.713843204767905, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 84.9, "change_1d_pct": -3.8287267784322565, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.001508227229895, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.575119406813807, "volatility_20d_pct": 50.45718157512095, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 419.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.305609284332676, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.579768072243436, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.858069340825067, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.6517211804937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AJB_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 457.11, "change_1d_pct": 1.670373665480418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.4204773147297445, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.811061785203455, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.24632385988097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATE_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 71.95, "change_1d_pct": -1.9086571233810412, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.74261096003998, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.095605015848078, "volatility_20d_pct": 96.83808630212147, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": 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"last_price": 0.8, "change_1d_pct": -3.6144578313252906, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.624323046313894, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.358026295839021, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.9561977008674, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CHT_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 41.54, "change_1d_pct": -0.09620009620009418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.015786329990223, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.521102745368518, "volatility_20d_pct": 24.954564057486404, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 3022.0, "change_1d_pct": 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"news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AGFB_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.489, "change_1d_pct": 1.0330578512396604, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -42.05817880206173, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.068740926746961, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.29806006297306, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CE_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 54.63, "change_1d_pct": 17.382896433175766, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.825204225934408, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 22.668115720739745, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.3789154203742, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ARW_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 157.04, "change_1d_pct": 17.4569932685116, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 30.423336010344816, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 32.682425661849045, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.33365334275535, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMBUb_CFD.DK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 86.7, "change_1d_pct": 4.646952323476183, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.525394061587786, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.515049366380502, "volatility_20d_pct": 147.42827188909723, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAR_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 11.36, "change_1d_pct": -2.1533161068044815, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.490509649697998, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.768208541786088, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.85796537453234, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBRE_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 168.82, "change_1d_pct": 2.024536169698421, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.650190073833834, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.6925622408658256, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.58937189459598, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": 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"snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BMY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 61.29, "change_1d_pct": 8.95999999999999, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.071032974085394, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.944480481188814, "volatility_20d_pct": 59.99831583729795, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABBV_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 220.89, "change_1d_pct": -2.6187012299960455, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.255884875631356, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.3116450382395617, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.26499613206305, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BARC_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 472.2, "change_1d_pct": -3.5440710856909474, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.127754114052635, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8337899539478721, "volatility_20d_pct": 38.329163839573816, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRNK_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.99, "change_1d_pct": 0.25188916876575096, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.44372030290394, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.4091458393489065, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.1424091021338, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BERY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", 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"distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.607418850087406, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.7723729135133777, "volatility_20d_pct": 35.24213160208557, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BCP_CFD.PT", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.924, "change_1d_pct": -1.2820512820512886, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.27397840355707, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.529616724738683, "volatility_20d_pct": 48.570699966330075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BMO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 143.19, "change_1d_pct": 2.34436423415052, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 19.3192826177079, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.758880192655027, "volatility_20d_pct": 37.643495462157084, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CAG_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.18, "change_1d_pct": 1.1070110701107083, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -0.7341429521500187, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.129806433992972, "volatility_20d_pct": 55.37971406673143, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output 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"content": "```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ARW_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 98,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.5% daily change and +32.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"CE_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 97,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.4% daily change and +22.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BFAM_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 92,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Deeply oversold: -23.0% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol",
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"reasoning": "The user wants me to act as an \"Arena strategy executor\" for a specific strategy called \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\".\nI need to process a list of stocks (universe) and select exactly 5 candidates based on the strategy rules.\n\n**Strategy Rules:**\n* **Target:** Short-term mean reversion in liquid equities.\n* **Horizon:** 2-10 trading days.\n* **Max Positions:** 10 (not directly relevant for selection, but good context).\n* **Constraints:**\n * Select exactly 5 candidates.\n * Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known). (Data shows `days_to_next_earnings` is null for all, so this constraint is effectively \"N/A\" or \"Unknown\", but I must not invent data).\n * Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known). (Hard to judge without news, but `change_1d_pct` can give clues. Extreme one-day moves might be binary events).\n * Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector. (Sector data is empty/null for all provided stocks. This is a problem. I cannot enforce sector concentration if I don't know the sectors. I will assume I should select based on technicals and note the sector limitation if necessary, or just pick the best technical fits. The prompt says \"sector may be unknown\").\n* **Region:** US. (The universe contains US, UK, DE, FR, DK, PL, BE, SE, PT symbols. The task specifies `region: \"US\"`. I must filter for US symbols only).\n * US Symbols in list: CAR_CFD.US, ASGN_CFD.US, BDX_CFD.US, BFAM_CFD.US, BRO_CFD.US, CCK_CFD.US, AJG_CFD.US, AMCX_CFD.US, BBY_CFD.US, CABO_CFD.US, BLDR_CFD.US, AA_CFD.US, CE_CFD.US, ARW_CFD.US, CBRE_CFD.US, ALL_CFD.US, BMY_CFD.US, ABBV_CFD.US, BERY_CFD.US, ADP_CFD.US, AIZ_CFD.US, BMO_CFD.US, CAG_CFD.US.\n\n**Mean Reversion Logic:**\n* Look for stocks that have moved significantly away from their mean (MA50 or MA200) and are likely to snap back.\n* Usually, this means stocks that are *oversold* (price below MA, recent drop) or *overbought* (price above MA, recent spike).\n* However, \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\" often implies looking for extremes.\n* Let's look at the indicators provided:\n * `distance_from_ma200_pct`\n * `distance_from_ma50_pct`\n * `change_1d_pct`\n * `volatility_20d_pct`\n\n**Filtering for US Symbols:**\n1. CAR_CFD.US: Price 119.97. Change +2%. Dist MA200 -15%. Dist MA50 -5.8%. (Below MAs, slight bounce today. Potential long mean reversion? Or short if it rallies further? Usually mean reversion buys dips or sells rips. Here it's below MAs, so looking for a bounce back up).\n2. ASGN_CFD.US: Price 50.97. Change +2.3%. Dist MA200 +2.4%. Dist MA50 +4.2%. (Near MAs).\n3. BDX_CFD.US: Price 208.67. Change +1.4%. Dist MA200 +11.5%. Dist MA50 +4.4%. (Above MAs).\n4. BFAM_CFD.US: Price 84.9. Change -3.8%. Dist MA200 -23%. Dist MA50 -13.6%. (Deeply oversold. Strong candidate for long mean reversion).\n5. BRO_CFD.US: Price 73.2. Change +2.8%. Dist MA200 -21.5%. Dist MA50 -6.6%. (Below MA200 significantly, but near MA50. Recent bounce).\n6. CCK_CFD.US: Price 110.64. Change -0.75%. Dist MA200 +10.9%. Dist MA50 +7.5%. (Above MAs).\n7. AJG_CFD.US: Price 237.25. Change -2.8%. Dist MA200 -18.1%. Dist MA50 -5.8%. (Below MAs).\n8. AMCX_CFD.US: Price 7.64. Change -1.2%. Dist MA200 +2.7%. Dist MA50 -13.6%. (Below MA50, above MA200).\n9. BBY_CFD.US: Price 67.94. Change +3.3%. Dist MA200 -5.9%. Dist MA50 -3.2%. (Below MAs, bouncing).\n10. CABO_CFD.US: Price 98.26. Change +11.2%. Dist MA200 -30.4%. Dist MA50 -7.9%. (Huge move up today, but still way below MA200. This looks like a \"dead cat bounce\" or binary event. `volatility_20d` is high (123%). Might be risky for mean reversion if it's a fundamental shift, but technically it's a massive spike from a low base. However, `distance_from_ma200` is -30%, so it's still technically oversold on a longer timeframe, but the 1-day move is +11%. This feels like a short-term overextension to the upside *relative to the recent trend*, or a potential long if it's recovering. Given the 11% jump, it might be a short candidate if it fails, or too volatile. Let's look for cleaner setups).\n11. BLDR_CFD.US: Price 124.0. Change +5.4%. Dist MA200 +3.2%. Dist MA50 +9.3%. (Breaking out above MAs. Not a mean reversion buy, maybe a short if it fails, but momentum is up).\n12. AA_CFD.US: Price 59.22. Change -1.3%. Dist MA200 +59.3%. Dist MA50 +9.4%. (Huge distance above MA200. This is a strong candidate for a *short* mean reversion (selling the rip). It's extended).\n13. CE_CFD.US: Price 54.63. Change +17.4%. Dist MA200 +15.8%. Dist MA50 +22.7%. (Massive spike. +17% in one day. Very extended above MAs. Strong candidate for *short* mean reversion).\n14. ARW_CFD.US: Price 157.04. Change +17.5%. Dist MA200 +30.4%. Dist MA50 +32.7%. (Massive spike. +17.5% in one day. Extremely extended. Strong candidate for *short* mean reversion).\n15. CBRE_CFD.US: Price 168.82. Change +2.0%. Dist MA200 +11.7%. Dist MA50 +2.7%. (Above MAs).\n16. ALL_CFD.US: Price 207.27. Change +2.1%. Dist MA200 +2.3%. Dist MA50 +1.4%. (Flat).\n17. BMY_CFD.US: Price 61.29. Change +9.0%. Dist MA200 +26.1%. Dist MA50 +12.9%. (Big move up, extended above MAs. Candidate for short).\n18. ABBV_CFD.US: Price 220.89. Change -2.6%. Dist MA200 +5.3%. Dist MA50 -1.3%. (Near MAs).\n19. BERY_CFD.US: Price 67.88. Change -2.3%. Dist MA200 +0.16%. Dist MA50 -2.4%. (Near MAs).\n20. ADP_CFD.US: Price 227.04. Change -4.2%. Dist MA200 -20.6%. Dist MA50 -11.3%. (Oversold. Candidate for long).\n21. AIZ_CFD.US: Price 243.94. Change +1.1%. Dist MA200 +14.6%. Dist MA50 +3.8%. (Above MAs).\n22. BMO_CFD.US: Price 143.19. Change +2.3%. Dist MA200 +19.3%. Dist MA50 +7.8%. (Above MAs).\n23. CAG_CFD.US: Price 19.18. Change +1.1%. Dist MA200 -0.7%. Dist MA50 +9.1%. (Near MA200, above MA50).\n\n**Selection Strategy:**\nI need 5 candidates. I should mix oversold (longs) and overbought (shorts) if possible, or pick the strongest signals.\nSince I don't have sector info, I will just pick the strongest technical setups.\n\n**Candidates:**\n\n1. **ARW_CFD.US** (Short): +17.5% daily change. +32.7% above MA50. +30.4% above MA200. This is a massive overextension. High probability of a pullback.\n2. **CE_CFD.US** (Short): +17.4% daily change. +22.7% above MA50. +15.8% above MA200. Similar to ARW, huge spike.\n3. **AA_CFD.US** (Short): While daily change is only -1.3%, it is +59.3% above MA200. This is a very long-term overextension. However, mean reversion usually works better on shorter-term extremes (MA50). The 1-day change isn't extreme. Let's look for something with a sharper recent move.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US** (Short): +9.0% daily change. +26.1% above MA200. +12.9% above MA50. Strong extension.\n5. **BFAM_CFD.US** (Long): -3.8% daily change. -23.0% below MA200. -13.6% below MA50. Deeply oversold. Good bounce candidate.\n6. **ADP_CFD.US** (Long): -4.2% daily change. -20.6% below MA200. -11.3% below MA50. Strongly sold off.\n7. **AJG_CFD.US** (Long): -2.8% daily change. -18.1% below MA200. -5.8% below MA50. Decent oversold condition.\n8. **CABO_CFD.US** (Short?): +11.2% daily change. But it is -30.4% below MA200. This is a \"V-shaped\" recovery or a short squeeze. Shorting this is dangerous (catching a falling knife upwards). Buying it is chasing a spike. I'll avoid this due to the conflicting signals (huge 1d gain vs deeply oversold LT).\n\n**Refining the Top 5:**\n\n1. **ARW_CFD.US**: Extreme overbought. +17.5% day, +32.7% vs MA50. Score: 95.\n2. **CE_CFD.US**: Extreme overbought. +17.4% day, +22.7% vs MA50. Score: 94.\n3. **BFAM_CFD.US**: Extreme oversold. -23% vs MA200, -13.6% vs MA50. Score: 90.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US**: Overbought. +9% day, +26% vs MA200. Score: 85.\n5. **ADP_CFD.US**: Oversold. -20.6% vs MA200, -11.3% vs MA50. Score: 82.\n\nLet's check **AA_CFD.US** again. +59% vs MA200 is huge. But the 1-day change is -1.3%. It might be consolidating. The volatility is high (113%). I prefer the momentum exhaustion plays (ARW, CE) or the clear dips (BFAM, ADP).\n\nLet's check **BRO_CFD.US**. -21.5% vs MA200. But price is 73.2 and it went up +2.8% today. It's trying to bounce. BFAM and ADP are cleaner \"dips\" (negative 1d change).\n\nLet's check **CABO_CFD.US** again. +11% day. -30% MA200. This is a \"short squeeze\" candidate. Usually, mean reversion strategies avoid these because they are event-driven (earnings or news). The prompt says \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\". A +11% move on a stock down -30% YTD (implied by MA200 distance) screams news/earnings. I will exclude CABO.\n\nLet's check **BBY_CFD.US**. +3.3% day. -5.9% MA200. Not extreme enough.\n\n**Final Selection:**\n1. **ARW_CFD.US** (Short): Extreme extension.\n2. **CE_CFD.US** (Short): Extreme extension.\n3. **BFAM_CFD.US** (Long): Deeply oversold.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US** (Short): Strong extension.\n5. **ADP_CFD.US** (Long): Strongly sold off.\n\nWait, I need to make sure I'm not inventing sectors. I can't check sector concentration. I will proceed with these 5.\n\n**Reasoning for JSON output:**\n* ARW: Massive 1-day spike (+17.5%) and extreme distance from MA50 (+32.7%) suggests exhaustion.\n* CE: Similar to ARW, huge 1-day gain (+17.4%) and extended above MAs.\n* BFAM: Deeply oversold, trading -23% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50 with recent selling pressure.\n* BMY: Significant 1-day surge (+9.0%) pushing it well above long and short-term moving averages.\n* ADP: Sharp decline (-4.2%) leaving it -20.6% below MA200, indicating potential for a bounce.\n\n**Constraints Check:**\n* Exactly 5 candidates? Yes.\n* US Region? Yes (all .US).\n* Avoid earnings? Unknown (null), so assumed safe.\n* Avoid binary moves? CABO was excluded for this reason. ARW/CE are big moves but look like momentum exhaustion rather than binary events (though could be, without news I treat them as price action extremes).\n* Sector concentration? Unknown.\n\n**Scoring (0-100):**\n* ARW: 98 (Extreme overextension)\n* CE: 97 (Extreme overextension)\n* BFAM: 92 (Deep oversold)\n* BMY: 88 (Strong overextension)\n* ADP: 85 (Strong oversold)\n\n**JSON Construction:**\n```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ARW_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 98,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.5% daily change and +32.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"CE_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 97,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.4% daily change and +22.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BFAM_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 92,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Deeply oversold: -23.0% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BMY_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 88,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong overextension: +9.0% daily change and +26.1% above MA200.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ADP_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strongly sold off: -20.6% below MA200 and -11.3% below MA50.\"\n }\n ],\n \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n \"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded)\",\n \"Insufficient mean reversion signal (price near moving averages)\",\n \"Potential binary event (extreme volatility with conflicting MA signals like CABO_CFD.US)\"\n ]\n}\n```\nDouble check symbols.\nARW_CFD.US - Yes.\nCE_CFD.US - Yes.\nBFAM_CFD.US - Yes.\nBMY_CFD.US - Yes.\nADP_CFD.US - Yes.\n\nAll are US. All have data.\nThe prompt asks for \"short, concrete, indicator-based\" reasons.\nThe prompt asks for \"rejected_common_reasons\".\n\nOne detail: \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)\".\nCABO_CFD.US had a +11% move but is -30% vs MA200. This is very suspicious of an event. I will list it in rejected reasons.\nAlso, many UK/EU symbols were rejected due to region.\n\nFinal check on \"max 1 per sector\". Since sector is null for all, I cannot enforce it. I will assume the strategy allows this or the data limitation overrides the rule. The prompt says \"sector may be unknown\".\n\nLet's refine the scores to be integers.\nARW: 98\nCE: 97\nBFAM: 92\nBMY: 88\nADP: 85\n\nLooks good.",
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"text": "The user wants me to act as an \"Arena strategy executor\" for a specific strategy called \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\".\nI need to process a list of stocks (universe) and select exactly 5 candidates based on the strategy rules.\n\n**Strategy Rules:**\n* **Target:** Short-term mean reversion in liquid equities.\n* **Horizon:** 2-10 trading days.\n* **Max Positions:** 10 (not directly relevant for selection, but good context).\n* **Constraints:**\n * Select exactly 5 candidates.\n * Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known). (Data shows `days_to_next_earnings` is null for all, so this constraint is effectively \"N/A\" or \"Unknown\", but I must not invent data).\n * Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known). (Hard to judge without news, but `change_1d_pct` can give clues. Extreme one-day moves might be binary events).\n * Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector. (Sector data is empty/null for all provided stocks. This is a problem. I cannot enforce sector concentration if I don't know the sectors. I will assume I should select based on technicals and note the sector limitation if necessary, or just pick the best technical fits. The prompt says \"sector may be unknown\").\n* **Region:** US. (The universe contains US, UK, DE, FR, DK, PL, BE, SE, PT symbols. The task specifies `region: \"US\"`. I must filter for US symbols only).\n * US Symbols in list: CAR_CFD.US, ASGN_CFD.US, BDX_CFD.US, BFAM_CFD.US, BRO_CFD.US, CCK_CFD.US, AJG_CFD.US, AMCX_CFD.US, BBY_CFD.US, CABO_CFD.US, BLDR_CFD.US, AA_CFD.US, CE_CFD.US, ARW_CFD.US, CBRE_CFD.US, ALL_CFD.US, BMY_CFD.US, ABBV_CFD.US, BERY_CFD.US, ADP_CFD.US, AIZ_CFD.US, BMO_CFD.US, CAG_CFD.US.\n\n**Mean Reversion Logic:**\n* Look for stocks that have moved significantly away from their mean (MA50 or MA200) and are likely to snap back.\n* Usually, this means stocks that are *oversold* (price below MA, recent drop) or *overbought* (price above MA, recent spike).\n* However, \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\" often implies looking for extremes.\n* Let's look at the indicators provided:\n * `distance_from_ma200_pct`\n * `distance_from_ma50_pct`\n * `change_1d_pct`\n * `volatility_20d_pct`\n\n**Filtering for US Symbols:**\n1. CAR_CFD.US: Price 119.97. Change +2%. Dist MA200 -15%. Dist MA50 -5.8%. (Below MAs, slight bounce today. Potential long mean reversion? Or short if it rallies further? Usually mean reversion buys dips or sells rips. Here it's below MAs, so looking for a bounce back up).\n2. ASGN_CFD.US: Price 50.97. Change +2.3%. Dist MA200 +2.4%. Dist MA50 +4.2%. (Near MAs).\n3. BDX_CFD.US: Price 208.67. Change +1.4%. Dist MA200 +11.5%. Dist MA50 +4.4%. (Above MAs).\n4. BFAM_CFD.US: Price 84.9. Change -3.8%. Dist MA200 -23%. Dist MA50 -13.6%. (Deeply oversold. Strong candidate for long mean reversion).\n5. BRO_CFD.US: Price 73.2. Change +2.8%. Dist MA200 -21.5%. Dist MA50 -6.6%. (Below MA200 significantly, but near MA50. Recent bounce).\n6. CCK_CFD.US: Price 110.64. Change -0.75%. Dist MA200 +10.9%. Dist MA50 +7.5%. (Above MAs).\n7. AJG_CFD.US: Price 237.25. Change -2.8%. Dist MA200 -18.1%. Dist MA50 -5.8%. (Below MAs).\n8. AMCX_CFD.US: Price 7.64. Change -1.2%. Dist MA200 +2.7%. Dist MA50 -13.6%. (Below MA50, above MA200).\n9. BBY_CFD.US: Price 67.94. Change +3.3%. Dist MA200 -5.9%. Dist MA50 -3.2%. (Below MAs, bouncing).\n10. CABO_CFD.US: Price 98.26. Change +11.2%. Dist MA200 -30.4%. Dist MA50 -7.9%. (Huge move up today, but still way below MA200. This looks like a \"dead cat bounce\" or binary event. `volatility_20d` is high (123%). Might be risky for mean reversion if it's a fundamental shift, but technically it's a massive spike from a low base. However, `distance_from_ma200` is -30%, so it's still technically oversold on a longer timeframe, but the 1-day move is +11%. This feels like a short-term overextension to the upside *relative to the recent trend*, or a potential long if it's recovering. Given the 11% jump, it might be a short candidate if it fails, or too volatile. Let's look for cleaner setups).\n11. BLDR_CFD.US: Price 124.0. Change +5.4%. Dist MA200 +3.2%. Dist MA50 +9.3%. (Breaking out above MAs. Not a mean reversion buy, maybe a short if it fails, but momentum is up).\n12. AA_CFD.US: Price 59.22. Change -1.3%. Dist MA200 +59.3%. Dist MA50 +9.4%. (Huge distance above MA200. This is a strong candidate for a *short* mean reversion (selling the rip). It's extended).\n13. CE_CFD.US: Price 54.63. Change +17.4%. Dist MA200 +15.8%. Dist MA50 +22.7%. (Massive spike. +17% in one day. Very extended above MAs. Strong candidate for *short* mean reversion).\n14. ARW_CFD.US: Price 157.04. Change +17.5%. Dist MA200 +30.4%. Dist MA50 +32.7%. (Massive spike. +17.5% in one day. Extremely extended. Strong candidate for *short* mean reversion).\n15. CBRE_CFD.US: Price 168.82. Change +2.0%. Dist MA200 +11.7%. Dist MA50 +2.7%. (Above MAs).\n16. ALL_CFD.US: Price 207.27. Change +2.1%. Dist MA200 +2.3%. Dist MA50 +1.4%. (Flat).\n17. BMY_CFD.US: Price 61.29. Change +9.0%. Dist MA200 +26.1%. Dist MA50 +12.9%. (Big move up, extended above MAs. Candidate for short).\n18. ABBV_CFD.US: Price 220.89. Change -2.6%. Dist MA200 +5.3%. Dist MA50 -1.3%. (Near MAs).\n19. BERY_CFD.US: Price 67.88. Change -2.3%. Dist MA200 +0.16%. Dist MA50 -2.4%. (Near MAs).\n20. ADP_CFD.US: Price 227.04. Change -4.2%. Dist MA200 -20.6%. Dist MA50 -11.3%. (Oversold. Candidate for long).\n21. AIZ_CFD.US: Price 243.94. Change +1.1%. Dist MA200 +14.6%. Dist MA50 +3.8%. (Above MAs).\n22. BMO_CFD.US: Price 143.19. Change +2.3%. Dist MA200 +19.3%. Dist MA50 +7.8%. (Above MAs).\n23. CAG_CFD.US: Price 19.18. Change +1.1%. Dist MA200 -0.7%. Dist MA50 +9.1%. (Near MA200, above MA50).\n\n**Selection Strategy:**\nI need 5 candidates. I should mix oversold (longs) and overbought (shorts) if possible, or pick the strongest signals.\nSince I don't have sector info, I will just pick the strongest technical setups.\n\n**Candidates:**\n\n1. **ARW_CFD.US** (Short): +17.5% daily change. +32.7% above MA50. +30.4% above MA200. This is a massive overextension. High probability of a pullback.\n2. **CE_CFD.US** (Short): +17.4% daily change. +22.7% above MA50. +15.8% above MA200. Similar to ARW, huge spike.\n3. **AA_CFD.US** (Short): While daily change is only -1.3%, it is +59.3% above MA200. This is a very long-term overextension. However, mean reversion usually works better on shorter-term extremes (MA50). The 1-day change isn't extreme. Let's look for something with a sharper recent move.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US** (Short): +9.0% daily change. +26.1% above MA200. +12.9% above MA50. Strong extension.\n5. **BFAM_CFD.US** (Long): -3.8% daily change. -23.0% below MA200. -13.6% below MA50. Deeply oversold. Good bounce candidate.\n6. **ADP_CFD.US** (Long): -4.2% daily change. -20.6% below MA200. -11.3% below MA50. Strongly sold off.\n7. **AJG_CFD.US** (Long): -2.8% daily change. -18.1% below MA200. -5.8% below MA50. Decent oversold condition.\n8. **CABO_CFD.US** (Short?): +11.2% daily change. But it is -30.4% below MA200. This is a \"V-shaped\" recovery or a short squeeze. Shorting this is dangerous (catching a falling knife upwards). Buying it is chasing a spike. I'll avoid this due to the conflicting signals (huge 1d gain vs deeply oversold LT).\n\n**Refining the Top 5:**\n\n1. **ARW_CFD.US**: Extreme overbought. +17.5% day, +32.7% vs MA50. Score: 95.\n2. **CE_CFD.US**: Extreme overbought. +17.4% day, +22.7% vs MA50. Score: 94.\n3. **BFAM_CFD.US**: Extreme oversold. -23% vs MA200, -13.6% vs MA50. Score: 90.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US**: Overbought. +9% day, +26% vs MA200. Score: 85.\n5. **ADP_CFD.US**: Oversold. -20.6% vs MA200, -11.3% vs MA50. Score: 82.\n\nLet's check **AA_CFD.US** again. +59% vs MA200 is huge. But the 1-day change is -1.3%. It might be consolidating. The volatility is high (113%). I prefer the momentum exhaustion plays (ARW, CE) or the clear dips (BFAM, ADP).\n\nLet's check **BRO_CFD.US**. -21.5% vs MA200. But price is 73.2 and it went up +2.8% today. It's trying to bounce. BFAM and ADP are cleaner \"dips\" (negative 1d change).\n\nLet's check **CABO_CFD.US** again. +11% day. -30% MA200. This is a \"short squeeze\" candidate. Usually, mean reversion strategies avoid these because they are event-driven (earnings or news). The prompt says \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\". A +11% move on a stock down -30% YTD (implied by MA200 distance) screams news/earnings. I will exclude CABO.\n\nLet's check **BBY_CFD.US**. +3.3% day. -5.9% MA200. Not extreme enough.\n\n**Final Selection:**\n1. **ARW_CFD.US** (Short): Extreme extension.\n2. **CE_CFD.US** (Short): Extreme extension.\n3. **BFAM_CFD.US** (Long): Deeply oversold.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US** (Short): Strong extension.\n5. **ADP_CFD.US** (Long): Strongly sold off.\n\nWait, I need to make sure I'm not inventing sectors. I can't check sector concentration. I will proceed with these 5.\n\n**Reasoning for JSON output:**\n* ARW: Massive 1-day spike (+17.5%) and extreme distance from MA50 (+32.7%) suggests exhaustion.\n* CE: Similar to ARW, huge 1-day gain (+17.4%) and extended above MAs.\n* BFAM: Deeply oversold, trading -23% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50 with recent selling pressure.\n* BMY: Significant 1-day surge (+9.0%) pushing it well above long and short-term moving averages.\n* ADP: Sharp decline (-4.2%) leaving it -20.6% below MA200, indicating potential for a bounce.\n\n**Constraints Check:**\n* Exactly 5 candidates? Yes.\n* US Region? Yes (all .US).\n* Avoid earnings? Unknown (null), so assumed safe.\n* Avoid binary moves? CABO was excluded for this reason. ARW/CE are big moves but look like momentum exhaustion rather than binary events (though could be, without news I treat them as price action extremes).\n* Sector concentration? Unknown.\n\n**Scoring (0-100):**\n* ARW: 98 (Extreme overextension)\n* CE: 97 (Extreme overextension)\n* BFAM: 92 (Deep oversold)\n* BMY: 88 (Strong overextension)\n* ADP: 85 (Strong oversold)\n\n**JSON Construction:**\n```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ARW_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 98,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.5% daily change and +32.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"CE_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 97,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.4% daily change and +22.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BFAM_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 92,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Deeply oversold: -23.0% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BMY_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 88,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong overextension: +9.0% daily change and +26.1% above MA200.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ADP_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strongly sold off: -20.6% below MA200 and -11.3% below MA50.\"\n }\n ],\n \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n \"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded)\",\n \"Insufficient mean reversion signal (price near moving averages)\",\n \"Potential binary event (extreme volatility with conflicting MA signals like CABO_CFD.US)\"\n ]\n}\n```\nDouble check symbols.\nARW_CFD.US - Yes.\nCE_CFD.US - Yes.\nBFAM_CFD.US - Yes.\nBMY_CFD.US - Yes.\nADP_CFD.US - Yes.\n\nAll are US. All have data.\nThe prompt asks for \"short, concrete, indicator-based\" reasons.\nThe prompt asks for \"rejected_common_reasons\".\n\nOne detail: \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)\".\nCABO_CFD.US had a +11% move but is -30% vs MA200. This is very suspicious of an event. I will list it in rejected reasons.\nAlso, many UK/EU symbols were rejected due to region.\n\nFinal check on \"max 1 per sector\". Since sector is null for all, I cannot enforce it. I will assume the strategy allows this or the data limitation overrides the rule. The prompt says \"sector may be unknown\".\n\nLet's refine the scores to be integers.\nARW: 98\nCE: 97\nBFAM: 92\nBMY: 88\nADP: 85\n\nLooks good.",
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}#99 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-02-09T15:52:40.058744+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [], "candidates": [], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [],
"hold": [],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidates provided in the input list and the current portfolio is empty. No trades can be executed."
}Selection logs
#49 • stage1 • 2026-02-09T15:52:40.053724+00:00
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"content": "```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ARW_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 98,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.5% daily change and +32.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"CE_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 97,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.4% daily change and +22.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BFAM_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 92,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Deeply oversold: -23.0% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol",
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"reasoning": "The user wants me to act as an \"Arena strategy executor\" for a specific strategy called \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\".\nI need to process a list of stocks (universe) and select exactly 5 candidates based on the strategy rules.\n\n**Strategy Rules:**\n* **Target:** Short-term mean reversion in liquid equities.\n* **Horizon:** 2-10 trading days.\n* **Max Positions:** 10 (not directly relevant for selection, but good context).\n* **Constraints:**\n * Select exactly 5 candidates.\n * Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known). (Data shows `days_to_next_earnings` is null for all, so this constraint is effectively \"N/A\" or \"Unknown\", but I must not invent data).\n * Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known). (Hard to judge without news, but `change_1d_pct` can give clues. Extreme one-day moves might be binary events).\n * Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector. (Sector data is empty/null for all provided stocks. This is a problem. I cannot enforce sector concentration if I don't know the sectors. I will assume I should select based on technicals and note the sector limitation if necessary, or just pick the best technical fits. The prompt says \"sector may be unknown\").\n* **Region:** US. (The universe contains US, UK, DE, FR, DK, PL, BE, SE, PT symbols. The task specifies `region: \"US\"`. I must filter for US symbols only).\n * US Symbols in list: CAR_CFD.US, ASGN_CFD.US, BDX_CFD.US, BFAM_CFD.US, BRO_CFD.US, CCK_CFD.US, AJG_CFD.US, AMCX_CFD.US, BBY_CFD.US, CABO_CFD.US, BLDR_CFD.US, AA_CFD.US, CE_CFD.US, ARW_CFD.US, CBRE_CFD.US, ALL_CFD.US, BMY_CFD.US, ABBV_CFD.US, BERY_CFD.US, ADP_CFD.US, AIZ_CFD.US, BMO_CFD.US, CAG_CFD.US.\n\n**Mean Reversion Logic:**\n* Look for stocks that have moved significantly away from their mean (MA50 or MA200) and are likely to snap back.\n* Usually, this means stocks that are *oversold* (price below MA, recent drop) or *overbought* (price above MA, recent spike).\n* However, \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\" often implies looking for extremes.\n* Let's look at the indicators provided:\n * `distance_from_ma200_pct`\n * `distance_from_ma50_pct`\n * `change_1d_pct`\n * `volatility_20d_pct`\n\n**Filtering for US Symbols:**\n1. CAR_CFD.US: Price 119.97. Change +2%. Dist MA200 -15%. Dist MA50 -5.8%. (Below MAs, slight bounce today. Potential long mean reversion? Or short if it rallies further? Usually mean reversion buys dips or sells rips. Here it's below MAs, so looking for a bounce back up).\n2. ASGN_CFD.US: Price 50.97. Change +2.3%. Dist MA200 +2.4%. Dist MA50 +4.2%. (Near MAs).\n3. BDX_CFD.US: Price 208.67. Change +1.4%. Dist MA200 +11.5%. Dist MA50 +4.4%. (Above MAs).\n4. BFAM_CFD.US: Price 84.9. Change -3.8%. Dist MA200 -23%. Dist MA50 -13.6%. (Deeply oversold. Strong candidate for long mean reversion).\n5. BRO_CFD.US: Price 73.2. Change +2.8%. Dist MA200 -21.5%. Dist MA50 -6.6%. (Below MA200 significantly, but near MA50. Recent bounce).\n6. CCK_CFD.US: Price 110.64. Change -0.75%. Dist MA200 +10.9%. Dist MA50 +7.5%. (Above MAs).\n7. AJG_CFD.US: Price 237.25. Change -2.8%. Dist MA200 -18.1%. Dist MA50 -5.8%. (Below MAs).\n8. AMCX_CFD.US: Price 7.64. Change -1.2%. Dist MA200 +2.7%. Dist MA50 -13.6%. (Below MA50, above MA200).\n9. BBY_CFD.US: Price 67.94. Change +3.3%. Dist MA200 -5.9%. Dist MA50 -3.2%. (Below MAs, bouncing).\n10. CABO_CFD.US: Price 98.26. Change +11.2%. Dist MA200 -30.4%. Dist MA50 -7.9%. (Huge move up today, but still way below MA200. This looks like a \"dead cat bounce\" or binary event. `volatility_20d` is high (123%). Might be risky for mean reversion if it's a fundamental shift, but technically it's a massive spike from a low base. However, `distance_from_ma200` is -30%, so it's still technically oversold on a longer timeframe, but the 1-day move is +11%. This feels like a short-term overextension to the upside *relative to the recent trend*, or a potential long if it's recovering. Given the 11% jump, it might be a short candidate if it fails, or too volatile. Let's look for cleaner setups).\n11. BLDR_CFD.US: Price 124.0. Change +5.4%. Dist MA200 +3.2%. Dist MA50 +9.3%. (Breaking out above MAs. Not a mean reversion buy, maybe a short if it fails, but momentum is up).\n12. AA_CFD.US: Price 59.22. Change -1.3%. Dist MA200 +59.3%. Dist MA50 +9.4%. (Huge distance above MA200. This is a strong candidate for a *short* mean reversion (selling the rip). It's extended).\n13. CE_CFD.US: Price 54.63. Change +17.4%. Dist MA200 +15.8%. Dist MA50 +22.7%. (Massive spike. +17% in one day. Very extended above MAs. Strong candidate for *short* mean reversion).\n14. ARW_CFD.US: Price 157.04. Change +17.5%. Dist MA200 +30.4%. Dist MA50 +32.7%. (Massive spike. +17.5% in one day. Extremely extended. Strong candidate for *short* mean reversion).\n15. CBRE_CFD.US: Price 168.82. Change +2.0%. Dist MA200 +11.7%. Dist MA50 +2.7%. (Above MAs).\n16. ALL_CFD.US: Price 207.27. Change +2.1%. Dist MA200 +2.3%. Dist MA50 +1.4%. (Flat).\n17. BMY_CFD.US: Price 61.29. Change +9.0%. Dist MA200 +26.1%. Dist MA50 +12.9%. (Big move up, extended above MAs. Candidate for short).\n18. ABBV_CFD.US: Price 220.89. Change -2.6%. Dist MA200 +5.3%. Dist MA50 -1.3%. (Near MAs).\n19. BERY_CFD.US: Price 67.88. Change -2.3%. Dist MA200 +0.16%. Dist MA50 -2.4%. (Near MAs).\n20. ADP_CFD.US: Price 227.04. Change -4.2%. Dist MA200 -20.6%. Dist MA50 -11.3%. (Oversold. Candidate for long).\n21. AIZ_CFD.US: Price 243.94. Change +1.1%. Dist MA200 +14.6%. Dist MA50 +3.8%. (Above MAs).\n22. BMO_CFD.US: Price 143.19. Change +2.3%. Dist MA200 +19.3%. Dist MA50 +7.8%. (Above MAs).\n23. CAG_CFD.US: Price 19.18. Change +1.1%. Dist MA200 -0.7%. Dist MA50 +9.1%. (Near MA200, above MA50).\n\n**Selection Strategy:**\nI need 5 candidates. I should mix oversold (longs) and overbought (shorts) if possible, or pick the strongest signals.\nSince I don't have sector info, I will just pick the strongest technical setups.\n\n**Candidates:**\n\n1. **ARW_CFD.US** (Short): +17.5% daily change. +32.7% above MA50. +30.4% above MA200. This is a massive overextension. High probability of a pullback.\n2. **CE_CFD.US** (Short): +17.4% daily change. +22.7% above MA50. +15.8% above MA200. Similar to ARW, huge spike.\n3. **AA_CFD.US** (Short): While daily change is only -1.3%, it is +59.3% above MA200. This is a very long-term overextension. However, mean reversion usually works better on shorter-term extremes (MA50). The 1-day change isn't extreme. Let's look for something with a sharper recent move.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US** (Short): +9.0% daily change. +26.1% above MA200. +12.9% above MA50. Strong extension.\n5. **BFAM_CFD.US** (Long): -3.8% daily change. -23.0% below MA200. -13.6% below MA50. Deeply oversold. Good bounce candidate.\n6. **ADP_CFD.US** (Long): -4.2% daily change. -20.6% below MA200. -11.3% below MA50. Strongly sold off.\n7. **AJG_CFD.US** (Long): -2.8% daily change. -18.1% below MA200. -5.8% below MA50. Decent oversold condition.\n8. **CABO_CFD.US** (Short?): +11.2% daily change. But it is -30.4% below MA200. This is a \"V-shaped\" recovery or a short squeeze. Shorting this is dangerous (catching a falling knife upwards). Buying it is chasing a spike. I'll avoid this due to the conflicting signals (huge 1d gain vs deeply oversold LT).\n\n**Refining the Top 5:**\n\n1. **ARW_CFD.US**: Extreme overbought. +17.5% day, +32.7% vs MA50. Score: 95.\n2. **CE_CFD.US**: Extreme overbought. +17.4% day, +22.7% vs MA50. Score: 94.\n3. **BFAM_CFD.US**: Extreme oversold. -23% vs MA200, -13.6% vs MA50. Score: 90.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US**: Overbought. +9% day, +26% vs MA200. Score: 85.\n5. **ADP_CFD.US**: Oversold. -20.6% vs MA200, -11.3% vs MA50. Score: 82.\n\nLet's check **AA_CFD.US** again. +59% vs MA200 is huge. But the 1-day change is -1.3%. It might be consolidating. The volatility is high (113%). I prefer the momentum exhaustion plays (ARW, CE) or the clear dips (BFAM, ADP).\n\nLet's check **BRO_CFD.US**. -21.5% vs MA200. But price is 73.2 and it went up +2.8% today. It's trying to bounce. BFAM and ADP are cleaner \"dips\" (negative 1d change).\n\nLet's check **CABO_CFD.US** again. +11% day. -30% MA200. This is a \"short squeeze\" candidate. Usually, mean reversion strategies avoid these because they are event-driven (earnings or news). The prompt says \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\". A +11% move on a stock down -30% YTD (implied by MA200 distance) screams news/earnings. I will exclude CABO.\n\nLet's check **BBY_CFD.US**. +3.3% day. -5.9% MA200. Not extreme enough.\n\n**Final Selection:**\n1. **ARW_CFD.US** (Short): Extreme extension.\n2. **CE_CFD.US** (Short): Extreme extension.\n3. **BFAM_CFD.US** (Long): Deeply oversold.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US** (Short): Strong extension.\n5. **ADP_CFD.US** (Long): Strongly sold off.\n\nWait, I need to make sure I'm not inventing sectors. I can't check sector concentration. I will proceed with these 5.\n\n**Reasoning for JSON output:**\n* ARW: Massive 1-day spike (+17.5%) and extreme distance from MA50 (+32.7%) suggests exhaustion.\n* CE: Similar to ARW, huge 1-day gain (+17.4%) and extended above MAs.\n* BFAM: Deeply oversold, trading -23% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50 with recent selling pressure.\n* BMY: Significant 1-day surge (+9.0%) pushing it well above long and short-term moving averages.\n* ADP: Sharp decline (-4.2%) leaving it -20.6% below MA200, indicating potential for a bounce.\n\n**Constraints Check:**\n* Exactly 5 candidates? Yes.\n* US Region? Yes (all .US).\n* Avoid earnings? Unknown (null), so assumed safe.\n* Avoid binary moves? CABO was excluded for this reason. ARW/CE are big moves but look like momentum exhaustion rather than binary events (though could be, without news I treat them as price action extremes).\n* Sector concentration? Unknown.\n\n**Scoring (0-100):**\n* ARW: 98 (Extreme overextension)\n* CE: 97 (Extreme overextension)\n* BFAM: 92 (Deep oversold)\n* BMY: 88 (Strong overextension)\n* ADP: 85 (Strong oversold)\n\n**JSON Construction:**\n```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ARW_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 98,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.5% daily change and +32.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"CE_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 97,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.4% daily change and +22.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BFAM_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 92,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Deeply oversold: -23.0% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BMY_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 88,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong overextension: +9.0% daily change and +26.1% above MA200.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ADP_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strongly sold off: -20.6% below MA200 and -11.3% below MA50.\"\n }\n ],\n \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n \"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded)\",\n \"Insufficient mean reversion signal (price near moving averages)\",\n \"Potential binary event (extreme volatility with conflicting MA signals like CABO_CFD.US)\"\n ]\n}\n```\nDouble check symbols.\nARW_CFD.US - Yes.\nCE_CFD.US - Yes.\nBFAM_CFD.US - Yes.\nBMY_CFD.US - Yes.\nADP_CFD.US - Yes.\n\nAll are US. All have data.\nThe prompt asks for \"short, concrete, indicator-based\" reasons.\nThe prompt asks for \"rejected_common_reasons\".\n\nOne detail: \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)\".\nCABO_CFD.US had a +11% move but is -30% vs MA200. This is very suspicious of an event. I will list it in rejected reasons.\nAlso, many UK/EU symbols were rejected due to region.\n\nFinal check on \"max 1 per sector\". Since sector is null for all, I cannot enforce it. I will assume the strategy allows this or the data limitation overrides the rule. The prompt says \"sector may be unknown\".\n\nLet's refine the scores to be integers.\nARW: 98\nCE: 97\nBFAM: 92\nBMY: 88\nADP: 85\n\nLooks good.",
"reasoning_details": [
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"text": "The user wants me to act as an \"Arena strategy executor\" for a specific strategy called \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\".\nI need to process a list of stocks (universe) and select exactly 5 candidates based on the strategy rules.\n\n**Strategy Rules:**\n* **Target:** Short-term mean reversion in liquid equities.\n* **Horizon:** 2-10 trading days.\n* **Max Positions:** 10 (not directly relevant for selection, but good context).\n* **Constraints:**\n * Select exactly 5 candidates.\n * Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known). (Data shows `days_to_next_earnings` is null for all, so this constraint is effectively \"N/A\" or \"Unknown\", but I must not invent data).\n * Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known). (Hard to judge without news, but `change_1d_pct` can give clues. Extreme one-day moves might be binary events).\n * Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector. (Sector data is empty/null for all provided stocks. This is a problem. I cannot enforce sector concentration if I don't know the sectors. I will assume I should select based on technicals and note the sector limitation if necessary, or just pick the best technical fits. The prompt says \"sector may be unknown\").\n* **Region:** US. (The universe contains US, UK, DE, FR, DK, PL, BE, SE, PT symbols. The task specifies `region: \"US\"`. I must filter for US symbols only).\n * US Symbols in list: CAR_CFD.US, ASGN_CFD.US, BDX_CFD.US, BFAM_CFD.US, BRO_CFD.US, CCK_CFD.US, AJG_CFD.US, AMCX_CFD.US, BBY_CFD.US, CABO_CFD.US, BLDR_CFD.US, AA_CFD.US, CE_CFD.US, ARW_CFD.US, CBRE_CFD.US, ALL_CFD.US, BMY_CFD.US, ABBV_CFD.US, BERY_CFD.US, ADP_CFD.US, AIZ_CFD.US, BMO_CFD.US, CAG_CFD.US.\n\n**Mean Reversion Logic:**\n* Look for stocks that have moved significantly away from their mean (MA50 or MA200) and are likely to snap back.\n* Usually, this means stocks that are *oversold* (price below MA, recent drop) or *overbought* (price above MA, recent spike).\n* However, \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\" often implies looking for extremes.\n* Let's look at the indicators provided:\n * `distance_from_ma200_pct`\n * `distance_from_ma50_pct`\n * `change_1d_pct`\n * `volatility_20d_pct`\n\n**Filtering for US Symbols:**\n1. CAR_CFD.US: Price 119.97. Change +2%. Dist MA200 -15%. Dist MA50 -5.8%. (Below MAs, slight bounce today. Potential long mean reversion? Or short if it rallies further? Usually mean reversion buys dips or sells rips. Here it's below MAs, so looking for a bounce back up).\n2. ASGN_CFD.US: Price 50.97. Change +2.3%. Dist MA200 +2.4%. Dist MA50 +4.2%. (Near MAs).\n3. BDX_CFD.US: Price 208.67. Change +1.4%. Dist MA200 +11.5%. Dist MA50 +4.4%. (Above MAs).\n4. BFAM_CFD.US: Price 84.9. Change -3.8%. Dist MA200 -23%. Dist MA50 -13.6%. (Deeply oversold. Strong candidate for long mean reversion).\n5. BRO_CFD.US: Price 73.2. Change +2.8%. Dist MA200 -21.5%. Dist MA50 -6.6%. (Below MA200 significantly, but near MA50. Recent bounce).\n6. CCK_CFD.US: Price 110.64. Change -0.75%. Dist MA200 +10.9%. Dist MA50 +7.5%. (Above MAs).\n7. AJG_CFD.US: Price 237.25. Change -2.8%. Dist MA200 -18.1%. Dist MA50 -5.8%. (Below MAs).\n8. AMCX_CFD.US: Price 7.64. Change -1.2%. Dist MA200 +2.7%. Dist MA50 -13.6%. (Below MA50, above MA200).\n9. BBY_CFD.US: Price 67.94. Change +3.3%. Dist MA200 -5.9%. Dist MA50 -3.2%. (Below MAs, bouncing).\n10. CABO_CFD.US: Price 98.26. Change +11.2%. Dist MA200 -30.4%. Dist MA50 -7.9%. (Huge move up today, but still way below MA200. This looks like a \"dead cat bounce\" or binary event. `volatility_20d` is high (123%). Might be risky for mean reversion if it's a fundamental shift, but technically it's a massive spike from a low base. However, `distance_from_ma200` is -30%, so it's still technically oversold on a longer timeframe, but the 1-day move is +11%. This feels like a short-term overextension to the upside *relative to the recent trend*, or a potential long if it's recovering. Given the 11% jump, it might be a short candidate if it fails, or too volatile. Let's look for cleaner setups).\n11. BLDR_CFD.US: Price 124.0. Change +5.4%. Dist MA200 +3.2%. Dist MA50 +9.3%. (Breaking out above MAs. Not a mean reversion buy, maybe a short if it fails, but momentum is up).\n12. AA_CFD.US: Price 59.22. Change -1.3%. Dist MA200 +59.3%. Dist MA50 +9.4%. (Huge distance above MA200. This is a strong candidate for a *short* mean reversion (selling the rip). It's extended).\n13. CE_CFD.US: Price 54.63. Change +17.4%. Dist MA200 +15.8%. Dist MA50 +22.7%. (Massive spike. +17% in one day. Very extended above MAs. Strong candidate for *short* mean reversion).\n14. ARW_CFD.US: Price 157.04. Change +17.5%. Dist MA200 +30.4%. Dist MA50 +32.7%. (Massive spike. +17.5% in one day. Extremely extended. Strong candidate for *short* mean reversion).\n15. CBRE_CFD.US: Price 168.82. Change +2.0%. Dist MA200 +11.7%. Dist MA50 +2.7%. (Above MAs).\n16. ALL_CFD.US: Price 207.27. Change +2.1%. Dist MA200 +2.3%. Dist MA50 +1.4%. (Flat).\n17. BMY_CFD.US: Price 61.29. Change +9.0%. Dist MA200 +26.1%. Dist MA50 +12.9%. (Big move up, extended above MAs. Candidate for short).\n18. ABBV_CFD.US: Price 220.89. Change -2.6%. Dist MA200 +5.3%. Dist MA50 -1.3%. (Near MAs).\n19. BERY_CFD.US: Price 67.88. Change -2.3%. Dist MA200 +0.16%. Dist MA50 -2.4%. (Near MAs).\n20. ADP_CFD.US: Price 227.04. Change -4.2%. Dist MA200 -20.6%. Dist MA50 -11.3%. (Oversold. Candidate for long).\n21. AIZ_CFD.US: Price 243.94. Change +1.1%. Dist MA200 +14.6%. Dist MA50 +3.8%. (Above MAs).\n22. BMO_CFD.US: Price 143.19. Change +2.3%. Dist MA200 +19.3%. Dist MA50 +7.8%. (Above MAs).\n23. CAG_CFD.US: Price 19.18. Change +1.1%. Dist MA200 -0.7%. Dist MA50 +9.1%. (Near MA200, above MA50).\n\n**Selection Strategy:**\nI need 5 candidates. I should mix oversold (longs) and overbought (shorts) if possible, or pick the strongest signals.\nSince I don't have sector info, I will just pick the strongest technical setups.\n\n**Candidates:**\n\n1. **ARW_CFD.US** (Short): +17.5% daily change. +32.7% above MA50. +30.4% above MA200. This is a massive overextension. High probability of a pullback.\n2. **CE_CFD.US** (Short): +17.4% daily change. +22.7% above MA50. +15.8% above MA200. Similar to ARW, huge spike.\n3. **AA_CFD.US** (Short): While daily change is only -1.3%, it is +59.3% above MA200. This is a very long-term overextension. However, mean reversion usually works better on shorter-term extremes (MA50). The 1-day change isn't extreme. Let's look for something with a sharper recent move.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US** (Short): +9.0% daily change. +26.1% above MA200. +12.9% above MA50. Strong extension.\n5. **BFAM_CFD.US** (Long): -3.8% daily change. -23.0% below MA200. -13.6% below MA50. Deeply oversold. Good bounce candidate.\n6. **ADP_CFD.US** (Long): -4.2% daily change. -20.6% below MA200. -11.3% below MA50. Strongly sold off.\n7. **AJG_CFD.US** (Long): -2.8% daily change. -18.1% below MA200. -5.8% below MA50. Decent oversold condition.\n8. **CABO_CFD.US** (Short?): +11.2% daily change. But it is -30.4% below MA200. This is a \"V-shaped\" recovery or a short squeeze. Shorting this is dangerous (catching a falling knife upwards). Buying it is chasing a spike. I'll avoid this due to the conflicting signals (huge 1d gain vs deeply oversold LT).\n\n**Refining the Top 5:**\n\n1. **ARW_CFD.US**: Extreme overbought. +17.5% day, +32.7% vs MA50. Score: 95.\n2. **CE_CFD.US**: Extreme overbought. +17.4% day, +22.7% vs MA50. Score: 94.\n3. **BFAM_CFD.US**: Extreme oversold. -23% vs MA200, -13.6% vs MA50. Score: 90.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US**: Overbought. +9% day, +26% vs MA200. Score: 85.\n5. **ADP_CFD.US**: Oversold. -20.6% vs MA200, -11.3% vs MA50. Score: 82.\n\nLet's check **AA_CFD.US** again. +59% vs MA200 is huge. But the 1-day change is -1.3%. It might be consolidating. The volatility is high (113%). I prefer the momentum exhaustion plays (ARW, CE) or the clear dips (BFAM, ADP).\n\nLet's check **BRO_CFD.US**. -21.5% vs MA200. But price is 73.2 and it went up +2.8% today. It's trying to bounce. BFAM and ADP are cleaner \"dips\" (negative 1d change).\n\nLet's check **CABO_CFD.US** again. +11% day. -30% MA200. This is a \"short squeeze\" candidate. Usually, mean reversion strategies avoid these because they are event-driven (earnings or news). The prompt says \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\". A +11% move on a stock down -30% YTD (implied by MA200 distance) screams news/earnings. I will exclude CABO.\n\nLet's check **BBY_CFD.US**. +3.3% day. -5.9% MA200. Not extreme enough.\n\n**Final Selection:**\n1. **ARW_CFD.US** (Short): Extreme extension.\n2. **CE_CFD.US** (Short): Extreme extension.\n3. **BFAM_CFD.US** (Long): Deeply oversold.\n4. **BMY_CFD.US** (Short): Strong extension.\n5. **ADP_CFD.US** (Long): Strongly sold off.\n\nWait, I need to make sure I'm not inventing sectors. I can't check sector concentration. I will proceed with these 5.\n\n**Reasoning for JSON output:**\n* ARW: Massive 1-day spike (+17.5%) and extreme distance from MA50 (+32.7%) suggests exhaustion.\n* CE: Similar to ARW, huge 1-day gain (+17.4%) and extended above MAs.\n* BFAM: Deeply oversold, trading -23% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50 with recent selling pressure.\n* BMY: Significant 1-day surge (+9.0%) pushing it well above long and short-term moving averages.\n* ADP: Sharp decline (-4.2%) leaving it -20.6% below MA200, indicating potential for a bounce.\n\n**Constraints Check:**\n* Exactly 5 candidates? Yes.\n* US Region? Yes (all .US).\n* Avoid earnings? Unknown (null), so assumed safe.\n* Avoid binary moves? CABO was excluded for this reason. ARW/CE are big moves but look like momentum exhaustion rather than binary events (though could be, without news I treat them as price action extremes).\n* Sector concentration? Unknown.\n\n**Scoring (0-100):**\n* ARW: 98 (Extreme overextension)\n* CE: 97 (Extreme overextension)\n* BFAM: 92 (Deep oversold)\n* BMY: 88 (Strong overextension)\n* ADP: 85 (Strong oversold)\n\n**JSON Construction:**\n```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ARW_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 98,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.5% daily change and +32.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"CE_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 97,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme overextension: +17.4% daily change and +22.7% above MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BFAM_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 92,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Deeply oversold: -23.0% below MA200 and -13.6% below MA50.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BMY_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 88,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong overextension: +9.0% daily change and +26.1% above MA200.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"ADP_CFD.US\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strongly sold off: -20.6% below MA200 and -11.3% below MA50.\"\n }\n ],\n \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n \"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded)\",\n \"Insufficient mean reversion signal (price near moving averages)\",\n \"Potential binary event (extreme volatility with conflicting MA signals like CABO_CFD.US)\"\n ]\n}\n```\nDouble check symbols.\nARW_CFD.US - Yes.\nCE_CFD.US - Yes.\nBFAM_CFD.US - Yes.\nBMY_CFD.US - Yes.\nADP_CFD.US - Yes.\n\nAll are US. All have data.\nThe prompt asks for \"short, concrete, indicator-based\" reasons.\nThe prompt asks for \"rejected_common_reasons\".\n\nOne detail: \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)\".\nCABO_CFD.US had a +11% move but is -30% vs MA200. This is very suspicious of an event. I will list it in rejected reasons.\nAlso, many UK/EU symbols were rejected due to region.\n\nFinal check on \"max 1 per sector\". Since sector is null for all, I cannot enforce it. I will assume the strategy allows this or the data limitation overrides the rule. The prompt says \"sector may be unknown\".\n\nLet's refine the scores to be integers.\nARW: 98\nCE: 97\nBFAM: 92\nBMY: 88\nADP: 85\n\nLooks good.",
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