Arena run #57

meanrev-v1anthropicanthropic/claude-opus-4.6USsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-02-09T17:30:55.428193+00:00
started_at: 2026-02-09T17:33:22.416831+00:00
finished_at: 2026-02-09T17:33:43.865306+00:00
duration_ms: 21446
Inputs
{
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [],
  "universe_symbols": [
    "FLTR_CFD.UK",
    "IRBT_CFD.US",
    "CPG_CFD.UK",
    "BPT_CFD.UK",
    "BBOX_CFD.UK",
    "AUTO_CFD.UK",
    "ICG_CFD.UK",
    "ADJ_CFD.DE",
    "IPR_CFD.PT",
    "HIAB_CFD.FI",
    "GN_CFD.DK",
    "CNA_CFD.UK",
    "GSK_CFD.UK",
    "AN_CFD.US",
    "BDX_CFD.US",
    "HLAG_CFD.DE",
    "CCL_CFD.UK",
    "KNEBV_CFD.FI",
    "GNS_CFD.UK",
    "G_CFD.US",
    "HFG_CFD.DE",
    "DHER_CFD.DE",
    "ADM_CFD.UK",
    "GO_CFD.US",
    "BRNK_CFD.DE",
    "BIG_CFD.FR",
    "AMG_CFD.NL",
    "CAST_CFD.SE",
    "HMSO_CFD.UK",
    "AIG_CFD.US",
    "IRM_CFD.US",
    "FISV_CFD.US",
    "GBF_CFD.DE",
    "FORTUM_CFD.FI",
    "JBLU_CFD.US",
    "BLND_CFD.UK",
    "CPB_CFD.US",
    "FLO_CFD.US",
    "APO_CFD.US",
    "COLM_CFD.US",
    "LAD_CFD.US",
    "BOY_CFD.UK",
    "GLPG_CFD.NL",
    "GFT_CFD.DE",
    "FAST_CFD.US",
    "LAND_CFD.UK",
    "GEN_CFD.UK",
    "BATS_CFD.UK",
    "DOCS_CFD.UK",
    "MAN_CFD.US"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1770658418-ZocPKv5eiJlizJWTWNqn",
    "model": "anthropic/claude-opus-4.6",
    "usage": {
      "cost": 0.005465,
      "is_byok": false,
      "cost_details": {
        "upstream_inference_cost": 0.005465,
        "upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.00204,
        "upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.003425
      },
      "total_tokens": 545,
      "prompt_tokens": 408,
      "completion_tokens": 137,
      "prompt_tokens_details": {
        "cached_tokens": 0,
        "cache_write_tokens": 0
      },
      "completion_tokens_details": {
        "reasoning_tokens": 0
      }
    },
    "object": "chat.completion",
    "choices": [
      {
        "index": 0,
        "message": {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "```json\n{\n  \"actions\": {\n    \"sell\": [],\n    \"hold\": [],\n    \"buy\": []\n  },\n  \"portfolio_rationale\": \"The portfolio is currently empty and no candidate securities have been provided for evaluation. Without any candidates to analyze for mean-reversion signals (e.g., oversold conditions, price dislocations, or fundamental mispricings), there are no actionable trades to execute. The strategy requires identifiable mean-reversion opportunities with supporting data before committing capital. Remaining fully in cash until candidates with valid pricing and signal data are available.\"\n}\n```",
          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": null
        },
        "logprobs": null,
        "finish_reason": "stop",
        "native_finish_reason": "stop"
      }
    ],
    "created": 1770658418,
    "provider": "Anthropic"
  }
}
Prompts & responses
#104openrouteranthropic/claude-opus-4.62026-02-09T17:33:22.462999+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "FLTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT PLC-DI", "sector": "", "last_price": 12305.0, "change_1d_pct": -25.78407720144753, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.10737840264257, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -32.350543135250895, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.69185529878447, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IRBT_CFD.US", "name": "IROBOT CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.49, "change_1d_pct": -45.55555555555556, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -85.08802629376588, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -82.85994123408423, "volatility_20d_pct": 786.5727671965057, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CPG_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2202.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.16622691292876, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.975119419721757, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.6971915407383005, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.58872399381154, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 274.2, "change_1d_pct": -5.912225920461179, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.483684525527371, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.545463557334964, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.69917499624198, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBOX_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 166.0, "change_1d_pct": 15.598885793871876, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.063751209988908, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.510960991667927, "volatility_20d_pct": 57.84262866116462, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "name": "AUTOTRADER GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 487.5, "change_1d_pct": -37.876721929835746, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.2752275317555, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -34.54270662081388, "volatility_20d_pct": 121.55657728615927, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1714.0, "change_1d_pct": -16.876818622696412, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.871458066903788, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.252272815048862, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.97233404982396, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.186, "change_1d_pct": 3.3333333333333437, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.132822716233882, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.098546042003239, "volatility_20d_pct": 289.85428872043053, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPR_CFD.PT", "name": "Impresa SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.187, "change_1d_pct": -3.6082474226804107, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 25.51177931404791, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.80127339378738, "volatility_20d_pct": 435.30530941050216, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HIAB_CFD.FI", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 50.85, "change_1d_pct": 0.5934718100890191, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.9514049517210132, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.1373931725220174, "volatility_20d_pct": 95.89223468715024, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GN_CFD.DK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 97.18, "change_1d_pct": -9.092609915809168, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.089781979356669, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.820792255612298, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.13892488265931, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CNA_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 192.7, "change_1d_pct": 0.7055134570159272, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.426638680771987, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.909539942735247, "volatility_20d_pct": 64.829903014991, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GSK_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2206.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.82013685239491, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 37.82643341052696, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.709576321970523, "volatility_20d_pct": 52.83958173805724, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AN_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 211.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.0633202414024323, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.2016477047904557, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.40639853488844135, "volatility_20d_pct": 69.70272862144698, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BDX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 208.67, "change_1d_pct": 1.379779429626371, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.477413629979605, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.4471762673110815, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.713843204767905, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": 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{"symbol": "KNEBV_CFD.FI", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 58.96, "change_1d_pct": -4.688005172971222, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.6450251194206205, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.242746381937044, "volatility_20d_pct": 60.30749330046405, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GNS_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 3135.0, "change_1d_pct": 28.747433264887068, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 43.087566327191595, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 23.102919223751872, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.46982035808782, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "G_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": 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"avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IRM_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 96.27, "change_1d_pct": 8.693688607880778, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.1043022101797417, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.49210131254561, "volatility_20d_pct": 65.77697558288025, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FISV_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 60.16, "change_1d_pct": 3.5277921183961336, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -50.07145690758406, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.60809644762589, "volatility_20d_pct": 56.02902546917359, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GBF_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 129.193, "change_1d_pct": 6.594884488448849, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 37.10633188056778, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.679463848567021, "volatility_20d_pct": 52.866684685412245, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FORTUM_CFD.FI", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.35, "change_1d_pct": 1.229400993983809, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.779487644354152, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.7418923164519224, "volatility_20d_pct": 64.51240491617641, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JBLU_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.17, "change_1d_pct": 10.77199281867145, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.773159881794943, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 23.365457671851875, "volatility_20d_pct": 129.86265850928896, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 419.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.305609284332676, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.579768072243436, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.858069340825067, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.6517211804937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CPB_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 28.52, "change_1d_pct": 6.0617329862402425, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.001860165340947, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.027674827926673, "volatility_20d_pct": 57.55424281400177, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 11.75, "change_1d_pct": 5.004468275245766, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.301275166333884, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.243255083786648, "volatility_20d_pct": 61.10312135408288, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "APO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 134.76, "change_1d_pct": 6.31952662721893, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.6772363394397138, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.283926433006558, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.67847082473573, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COLM_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 62.5, "change_1d_pct": 8.866051210590498, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.73565996342729, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.066214098467643, "volatility_20d_pct": 110.0219728259903, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LAD_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 336.54, "change_1d_pct": 2.291793313069923, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.930704858774293, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9131782043847236, "volatility_20d_pct": 58.57386000925162, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.0, "change_1d_pct": 21.927710843373504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.070718696943686, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 16.477642431132388, "volatility_20d_pct": 101.78150509898363, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GLPG_CFD.NL", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 28.14, "change_1d_pct": -0.7757404795486589, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.243630775283291, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.7129359216629494, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.02536911739296, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GFT_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 18.96, "change_1d_pct": -1.3373575480043587, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.668047706200595, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.4607064808069623, "volatility_20d_pct": 64.1358414550162, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FAST_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 47.18, "change_1d_pct": 1.7029532226773059, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.899683939459079, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.777697946456666, "volatility_20d_pct": 58.36547691535282, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 656.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.599332220367284, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.893575022206159, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.268727891963665, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.84943580280434, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GEN_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 363.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.349693251533743, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -0.8072323824217409, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.082033461824809, "volatility_20d_pct": 111.85373896752925, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BATS_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 4517.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.9647007235255467, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.841537301819052, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.258472817704307, "volatility_20d_pct": 41.94183879296525, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 68.35, "change_1d_pct": -8.805870580386932, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.608516188727766, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.353737234509135, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.53374073151934, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAN_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 34.93, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.399897356315753, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.207057100258957, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.3451732511559, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1770658402-TuKwVXd2MnwCWhneNu9E",
    "model": "anthropic/claude-opus-4.6",
    "usage": {
      "cost": 0.06624,
      "is_byok": false,
      "cost_details": {
        "upstream_inference_cost": 0.06624,
        "upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.04884,
        "upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.0174
      },
      "total_tokens": 10464,
      "prompt_tokens": 9768,
      "completion_tokens": 696,
      "prompt_tokens_details": {
        "cached_tokens": 0,
        "cache_write_tokens": 0
      },
      "completion_tokens_details": {
        "reasoning_tokens": 0
      }
    },
    "object": "chat.completion",
    "choices": [
      {
        "index": 0,
        "message": {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "```json\n{\n  \"selected_stocks\": [\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"ICG_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 72,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Down 16.9% in 1d, 15.9% below MA200, 14.3% below MA50; moderate volatility (68%) suggests oversold bounce likely within 2-10 days\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"GN_CFD.DK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 68,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Down 9.1% in 1d, 9.8% below MA50, 7.1% below MA200; volatility (97%) manageable; sharp single-day drop suggests short-term reversion\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"DHER_CFD.DE\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 65,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Down 9.7% in 1d, 4.5% below MA200, near MA50; moderate dislocation with contained volatility (106%) favors mean reversion\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"FISV_CFD.US\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 70,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"50% below MA200, 8.6% below MA50 but gained 3.5% today; deeply oversold with lower volatility (56%) suggests continued reversion bounce\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"G_CFD.US\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 64,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"9.5% below MA200, 12.9% below MA50 with moderate volatility (67%); recent +2.1% move hints at early reversion from oversold levels\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n    \"IRBT: extreme volatility (787%), penny stock at $0.49, likely binary/distressed event — not suitable for mean reversion\",\n    \"FLTR/AUTO: massive single-day drops (26-38%) with extreme volatility (121-129%) suggest event-driven moves, not clean mean reversion\",\n    \"BBOX/BOY/GNS/HMSO/CCL/JBLU: large positive moves already well above MA50 — momentum, not mean reversion candidates\",\n    \"ADJ/IPR/BRNK: sub-$1 prices with extreme volatility (290-435%) — illiquid micro-caps unsuitable for strategy\",\n    \"GSK/GBF/AMG: trading 37-41% above MA200 — extended to upside, no oversold signal\",\n    \"Sector concentration avoided: selected across financials (ICG), tech/audio (GN), delivery (DHER), fintech (FISV), professional services (G)\"\n  ]\n}\n```",
          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": null
        },
        "logprobs": null,
        "finish_reason": "stop",
        "native_finish_reason": "stop"
      }
    ],
    "created": 1770658402,
    "provider": "Google"
  }
}
#105openrouteranthropic/claude-opus-4.62026-02-09T17:33:38.297382+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [], "candidates": [], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1770658418-ZocPKv5eiJlizJWTWNqn",
    "model": "anthropic/claude-opus-4.6",
    "usage": {
      "cost": 0.005465,
      "is_byok": false,
      "cost_details": {
        "upstream_inference_cost": 0.005465,
        "upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.00204,
        "upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.003425
      },
      "total_tokens": 545,
      "prompt_tokens": 408,
      "completion_tokens": 137,
      "prompt_tokens_details": {
        "cached_tokens": 0,
        "cache_write_tokens": 0
      },
      "completion_tokens_details": {
        "reasoning_tokens": 0
      }
    },
    "object": "chat.completion",
    "choices": [
      {
        "index": 0,
        "message": {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "```json\n{\n  \"actions\": {\n    \"sell\": [],\n    \"hold\": [],\n    \"buy\": []\n  },\n  \"portfolio_rationale\": \"The portfolio is currently empty and no candidate securities have been provided for evaluation. Without any candidates to analyze for mean-reversion signals (e.g., oversold conditions, price dislocations, or fundamental mispricings), there are no actionable trades to execute. The strategy requires identifiable mean-reversion opportunities with supporting data before committing capital. Remaining fully in cash until candidates with valid pricing and signal data are available.\"\n}\n```",
          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": null
        },
        "logprobs": null,
        "finish_reason": "stop",
        "native_finish_reason": "stop"
      }
    ],
    "created": 1770658418,
    "provider": "Anthropic"
  }
}
Selection logs
#52stage12026-02-09T17:33:38.293723+00:00
{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1770658402-TuKwVXd2MnwCWhneNu9E",
    "model": "anthropic/claude-opus-4.6",
    "usage": {
      "cost": 0.06624,
      "is_byok": false,
      "cost_details": {
        "upstream_inference_cost": 0.06624,
        "upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.04884,
        "upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.0174
      },
      "total_tokens": 10464,
      "prompt_tokens": 9768,
      "completion_tokens": 696,
      "prompt_tokens_details": {
        "cached_tokens": 0,
        "cache_write_tokens": 0
      },
      "completion_tokens_details": {
        "reasoning_tokens": 0
      }
    },
    "object": "chat.completion",
    "choices": [
      {
        "index": 0,
        "message": {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "```json\n{\n  \"selected_stocks\": [\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"ICG_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 72,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Down 16.9% in 1d, 15.9% below MA200, 14.3% below MA50; moderate volatility (68%) suggests oversold bounce likely within 2-10 days\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"GN_CFD.DK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 68,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Down 9.1% in 1d, 9.8% below MA50, 7.1% below MA200; volatility (97%) manageable; sharp single-day drop suggests short-term reversion\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"DHER_CFD.DE\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 65,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Down 9.7% in 1d, 4.5% below MA200, near MA50; moderate dislocation with contained volatility (106%) favors mean reversion\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"FISV_CFD.US\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 70,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"50% below MA200, 8.6% below MA50 but gained 3.5% today; deeply oversold with lower volatility (56%) suggests continued reversion bounce\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"G_CFD.US\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 64,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"9.5% below MA200, 12.9% below MA50 with moderate volatility (67%); recent +2.1% move hints at early reversion from oversold levels\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n    \"IRBT: extreme volatility (787%), penny stock at $0.49, likely binary/distressed event — not suitable for mean reversion\",\n    \"FLTR/AUTO: massive single-day drops (26-38%) with extreme volatility (121-129%) suggest event-driven moves, not clean mean reversion\",\n    \"BBOX/BOY/GNS/HMSO/CCL/JBLU: large positive moves already well above MA50 — momentum, not mean reversion candidates\",\n    \"ADJ/IPR/BRNK: sub-$1 prices with extreme volatility (290-435%) — illiquid micro-caps unsuitable for strategy\",\n    \"GSK/GBF/AMG: trading 37-41% above MA200 — extended to upside, no oversold signal\",\n    \"Sector concentration avoided: selected across financials (ICG), tech/audio (GN), delivery (DHER), fintech (FISV), professional services (G)\"\n  ]\n}\n```",
          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": null
        },
        "logprobs": null,
        "finish_reason": "stop",
        "native_finish_reason": "stop"
      }
    ],
    "created": 1770658402,
    "provider": "Google"
  }
}